A new report by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) suggests that global greenhouse gas emissions could begin to decline within the next decade, but not nearly enough to meet the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C target.
According to the report, if all current national climate plans are fully implemented, global emissions could fall by about 10% by 2035 compared to 2019 levels. While this marks the first time projections show a decline, the UN says the reduction remains far below the roughly 60% cut needed to keep global warming below 1.5°C.
The analysis comes just weeks before the COP30 climate summit in Brazil, where countries are expected to present more ambitious commitments. Climate experts warn that the world’s limited progress risks locking in severe impacts for vulnerable nations already facing rising sea levels, droughts, and heatwaves.
“This is a turning point, but not yet the transformation we need. Countries are moving in the right direction, but the pace and scale are insufficient to avoid the most dangerous consequences of climate change,” a UNFCCC spokesperson said.
The report highlights that many developing countries, particularly in Africa, remain constrained by limited access to climate finance and high debt burdens, which slow their transition to renewable energy and climate adaptation projects.
Environmental analysts say the findings underscore the need for wealthier nations to meet their climate finance commitments, especially to support low-income countries in implementing their own climate action plans.
The UNFCCC urged governments to strengthen their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) before COP30 and accelerate efforts to phase out fossil fuels, invest in clean energy, and protect natural carbon sinks such as forests and wetlands.
As the world approaches a critical decade for climate action, the message is clear: while global emissions may finally peak, the planet is still off track to prevent the most severe consequences of global warming.
