A sharp rise in NATO’s military spending could unleash a wave of greenhouse gas emissions equal to the annual output of Brazil, according to a new analysis by Scientists for Global Responsibility (SGR).
The report, released Friday, estimates that plans by NATO member states to boost defense budgets could generate 1,320 million tonnes of CO₂-equivalent emissions over the next decade. That figure, comparable to one of the world’s largest emitters, has raised alarms among climate advocates who warn the buildup threatens global climate targets.
“Military activities already account for a significant but underreported share of global emissions. This spending surge risks undoing hard-won progress in reducing greenhouse gases.” said Dr. Stuart Parkinson, SGR’s executive director.
NATO members have pledged to increase defense spending to at least 2% of their GDP in response to rising global security threats. While the alliance has acknowledged the environmental footprint of its operations, critics say military emissions remain largely exempt from international climate reporting requirements.
Environmental groups argue that governments must include military emissions in their national climate accounting and invest in cleaner technologies for defense operations. Tara Connolly, a climate campaigner with Greenpeace International, said,
“We cannot afford to overlook the climate cost of war preparations. The planet’s security depends on climate stability as much as geopolitical stability.”
NATO officials, responding to the report, said the alliance is exploring measures to reduce its environmental impact, including energy efficiency improvements and alternative fuels for its fleets. They emphasized that member nations face complex security challenges that require preparedness.
The SGR study adds momentum to a growing global debate over the environmental consequences of defense policies. Climate experts warn that without stricter monitoring and emission caps, increased militarization could complicate efforts to meet the Paris Agreement goal of limiting warming to 1.5°C.
With global emissions already at record highs, the findings are expected to fuel discussions at upcoming international climate forums, where activists and policymakers will push for greater transparency on military-related emissions.
As nations navigate the intersection of security and sustainability, the report underscores a difficult balancing act: addressing immediate geopolitical threats while safeguarding the planet’s long-term climate stability.
